OK well I procrastinated and missed my deadline on last week's picks so here's what I'm gonna do: I'm gonna go through and, as honestly as possible, I'm going to talk about what teams I would have picked last week (believe me, I can already see quite a few I'd have picked wrong and I'm gonna own up to that). Then I'll do the rest of the column like I normally would.
Two Weeks Ago
Highlights: Absolutely NAILED wins by FIU, Texas, Arizona State, and Michigan. Also 2-0-1 on the spreads (USC/Utah was a push)
Lowlights: Pretty much the only lowlight was the upset pick. Guess I overestimated Jordan Wynn and the Utah offense.
The Rest: Thought Alabama and South Carolina would win more comfortably than they did.
No. 3 LSU at No. 25 Mississippi State -- ESPN -- Thursday, September 15th, 8:00pm
Definitely would have picked LSU in this one (as evidenced by the fact that I have them #1 in my Top 25)
No. 21 Auburn at Clemson -- ABC -- 12:00pm
I really thought Auburn was going to continue improving and take this one.
No. 15 Michigan State at Notre Dame -- NBC -- 3:30pm
No doubt I would have taken Michigan State in this one. I fucking hate when Lou Holtz picks them as the underdog and they win.
Tennessee at No. 16 Florida -- CBS -- 3:30pm
I would have wanted to pick Tennessee here but I don't think I would have been able to...although I would have thought it would be closer than it was...
UPSET OF THE WEEK
No. 17 Ohio State at Miami (FL) -- ESPN -- 7:30pm
I really did have this as my UOTW before the game was played. Not hard to imagine considering what a UM homer I am.
GAME OF THE WEEK
No. 1 Oklahoma at No. 5 Florida State -- ABC -- 8:00pm
No way FSU was winning this one. I could barely put them in the top ten of my Top 25 before this game was even played. Although it would be interesting to see this game play out with E.J. Manuel playing all of it.
Last Week
Highlights: The only real highlight for this week would have been nailing another upset pick.
Lowlights: overestimating Auburn and Michigan State
Current Record
Last week: 4-2
Overall: 18-7
Upset of the Week: 2-1
HEADLINES
-For me, the story of the week was the Georgia Tech offense. The Jackets rushed for 604 yards and 7 touchdowns on 50 carries--an NCAA-record 12.1 yards per carry. Their top 3 rushers? 5 carries, 157 yards. 5 carries, 110 yards. 4 carries, 72 yards. These three guys rushed for 339 yards on 14 carries. That's over 24 yards per carry. I just...I don't know what else to say about this...
-I went to another FIU game. This one against UCF and much more competitive than the last one. Also a much bigger turnout (over 20,000 in the stands) this time with UCF filling their section and almost contributing to a sellout. FIU proved they can win with defense with T.Y. Hilton sidelined most of the game. If T.Y. gets healthy again soon, this team has a real chance at a special season. They've even started garnering Top 25 votes after the UCF win.
-Will the real Notre Dame please stand up? I don't know if Brian Kelly should be encouraged by a huge win over a top 15 team or panicked about his team's incredible inconsistency. The QB guru has been getting pretty inconsistent play out of both Dayne Crist and Tommy Rees although it might be a bit much to expect him to turn Notre Dame into Cincinnati in just a year (I know, I had to read that sentence again too). If Notre Dame is going to have to rely on their defense to win games all year, they're gonna have a real hard time just staying above .500 but if Rees can cut out the mistakes, they could win 8 or 9 games.
-How bout them Canes? Actually, how bout Lamar Miller? At least I think that's his name because I've never really been able to read the back of his jersey quick enough. 303 yards in two games on just 44 carries (that's nearly 7 yards per carry)--and this is against Maryland and Ohio State, not FAU and UAB. This guy could make a serious run as a dark horse candidate for Heisman. He's got games against Kansas State and Bethune Cookman to pad some stats before a tough trip to Blacksburg.
North Carolina at No. 25 Georgia Tech -- ESPN -- 12:00pm
This should be an interesting battle for positioning in the ACC Coastal division. We're not really sure who either of these teams are yet but we'll find out today. North Carolina better hope they're ready for a Georgia Tech offense fresh off of setting an NCAA record for team rushing yards per carry (12.1) against Kansas--a BCS team. I don't know if they'll be ready for this attack. Maybe if they had a couple extra days to prepare but not today.
Hobbitcore sez: Georgia Tech
No. 14 Arkansas at No. 3 Alabama -- CBS -- 3:30pm
I really think Alabama is getting picked off sometime this season, maybe even twice. I really like Arkansas's offense under Bobby Petrino but they're gonna be running into a buzzsaw in Alabama's NFL caliber defense and Bama's offense will shred a mediocre Arkansas defense.
Hobbitcore sez: Alabama
No. 2 LSU at No. 16 West Virginia -- ABC -- 8:00pm
This should be an interesting matchup as West Virginia's dynamic offense slams headfirst into another NFL caliber defense. Oregon had a hell of a time running the ball on the Tigers but they got a few good chunks through the air so I don't think LSU will blow the Mountaineers away but they should still win by more than a score in the end.
Hobbitcore sez: LSU
UPSET OF THE WEEK
No. 11 Florida State at No. 21 Clemson -- ESPN -- 3:30pm
OK, this is a grey area. The opening line was FSU by 3 and now it's at Clemson -2.5 so it's a little sketchy. However, FSU is ranked ahead of Clemson in all polls INCLUDING the Vegas Insider Top 25 so I'm going to go ahead and count this as an upset. Clemson has historically not been able to handle success but this is different. They have never and will never have a problem getting up for beating FSU at home and that's exactly what they'll do.
The Upset Hobbit sez: Clemson
GAME OF THE WEEK
No. 7 Oklahoma State at No. 8 Texas A&M -- ABC/ESPN2 -- 3:30pm
It is seriously INSANE how many phenomenal games are going to be going on at 3:30 but this one is the one you should watch if you only watch one. Two very exciting Big 12 offenses and two very hard hitting defenses. They may not be the two sexiest names on the marquee today but if you like ESPN Top 10 plays, watch this game. I like A&M for their defense in this one but it should be a shootout.
Keys to the Game
Oklahoma State:
-Protect Brandon Weeden!
-Find creative ways to get the ball in Justin Blackmon's hands (especially quickly against the blitz)
-Keep Ryan Tannehill in the pocket (keep a spy on him...someone big enough to tackle him)
Texas A&M:
-Don't take unnecessary chances on defense
-Unleash Tannehill (move the pocket and loosen the middle with designed runs)
-Get pressure on Weeden
Hobbitpick: Texas A&M 34, Oklahoma State 32
Out-of-Whack Spreads
-Georgia (-10) over Ole Miss
-Oregon (-15) over Arizona
-Portland State over TCU (-45)
My Heisman Ballot (if the season ended today)
1. Russell Wilson
2. Denard Robinson
3. Robert Griffin III
BCS Predictions
ACC: Florida State over Virginia Tech
Big East: South Florida
Big 10: Wisconsin over Nebraska
Big 12: Oklahoma
Pac 12: Stanford over Utah (although USC will win the division, they'll be ineligible for the title game)
SEC: Alabama over South Carolina
BCS Championship: Oklahoma over Wisconsin
Fiesta: LSU over Texas A&M
Sugar: Alabama over Boise State
Orange: Florida State over South Florida
Rose: Nebraska over Oregon
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Top Twenty FiveS (plural)
MY TOP 25
1. LSU
This is the only team that's proven anything as far as I'm concerned. They utterly flushed a top 5 team in Week 1 and that's good enough for me at this stage of the season.
2. Alabama
Another impressive win over Penn State puts them on top of Oklahoma for at least this week (Oklahoma faces FSU next).
3. Oklahoma
Possibly the most talented team in the country but so far untested.
4. Boise State
In spite of the fact that Georgia lost, Boise's dismantling of them in Week 1 looks mighty impressive right now.
5. Wisconsin
Russell Wilson has been looking great for the Badgers. It's pretty obvious this is the best team in the Big Ten right now.
6. Texas A&M
This is going to be a really tough team to get by in the Big 12 this year with a senior at QB and a monster defense.
7. Oklahoma State
With Brandon Weedon and Justin Blackmon back, this is going to be one of the most potent offenses in the nation.
8. Stanford
With Andrew Luck, anything is possible.
9. Nebraska
Can't wait to see how they stack up with the rest of the Big Ten. Back-to-back battles with Wisconsin and Ohio State are going to be very interesting.
10. Florida State
I'm still not really 100% sold on this team with E.J. Manuel under center. But then, who's going to beat them in the ACC other than Virginia Tech?
11. Virginia Tech
12. West Virginia
13. South Carolina
14. Arkansas
15. Oregon
16. Baylor
17. South Florida
18. Michigan State
19. Florida
20. Ohio State
21. Texas
22. Auburn
23. Arizona State
24. Michigan
25. FIU
AP Top 25
1. Oklahoma
2. Alabama (+1)
3. LSU (-1)
4. Boise State
5. Florida State
6. Stanford
7. Wisconsin (+1)
8. Oklahoma State (+1)
9. Texas A&M (-2)
10. Nebraska
11. South Carolina (+1)
12. Oregon (+1)
13. Virginia Tech (-2)
14. Arkansas
15. Michigan State (+2)
16. Florida (+2)
17. Ohio State (-2)
18. West Virginia (+1)
19. Baylor (+1)
20. South Florida (+2)
21. Auburn (+6)
22. Arizona State (+4)
23. TCU (+2)
24. Texas
25. Mississippi State (-9)
Biggest Winners:
-Alabama - another win against a mediocre Penn State team and they're back out in front of LSU
-Wisconsin & Oklahoma State - both took advantage of Texas A&M's bye week by looking impressive against inferior teams
-South Carolina & Oregon - Virginia Tech's unimpressive win over (a very underrated) East Carolina let the door open for SC and Oregon to jump the Hokies (in spite of the fact that SC looked equally unimpressive against a now-0-and-2 Georgia team).
-Michigan State, Florida, and South Florida - an unimpressive win by the Buckeyes over Toledo and MSU's loss to Auburn bumped the Spartans, Gators, and Bulls up two spots each as they all cruised to easy victories.
-Auburn - proved that Utah State was tougher than you think with an impressive win over Mississippi State
-Arizona State - great win over Missouri (although I thought Mizzou was overrated all along)
-TCU - somehow leapfrogged Texas with a win over Air Force
-Georgia - that the Bulldogs are actually still receiving votes from both polls is a testament to how tough the schedule has been...they'll still get 8 or 9 wins and play in a decent bowl
Biggest Losers:
-LSU - the only team that has beaten a top 5 opponent and they get jumped by Bama
-Texas A&M - watched from home as Wisconsin and Oklahoma State passed them by
-Virginia Tech & Ohio State - struggles putting away inferior opponents left the Hokies and Buckeyes open to two teams apiece passing them by
-Texas - has won their first two games and yet were passed over by a 1-1 TCU team in the big slide due to MSU's loss
USA Today Top 25
1. Oklahoma
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Boise State (+1)
5. Florida State (-1)
6. Stanford
7. Oklahoma State
8. Wisconsin (+1)
9. Texas A&M (-1)
10. Nebraska
11. South Carolina (+1)
12. Virginia Tech (-1)
13. Arkansas
14. Oregon
15. Michigan State (+1)
16. Ohio State (-1)
17. Florida (+1)
18. Arizona State (+5)
19. Auburn (+3)
20. West Virginia (+4)
21. Texas
22. South Florida (+5)
23. TCU (+2)
24. Baylor (+2)
25. Mississippi State (-8)
Biggest Winners:
-Boise State - apparently the coaches are sold on the Broncos after seeing the Bulldogs go toe-to-toe with the Gamecocks
-Wisconsin - jumping the Aggies on their bye week
-South Carolina & Michigan State - jumping a spot after lackluster wins by the Hokies and Buckeyes
-Arizona State, Auburn, West Virginia, and South Florida - big jumps for all four
Biggest Losers:
-Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, and Ohio State - all dropped a spot without losing a game
-Texas - jumped over by Arizona State, Auburn, and West Virginia despite a win
1. LSU
This is the only team that's proven anything as far as I'm concerned. They utterly flushed a top 5 team in Week 1 and that's good enough for me at this stage of the season.
2. Alabama
Another impressive win over Penn State puts them on top of Oklahoma for at least this week (Oklahoma faces FSU next).
3. Oklahoma
Possibly the most talented team in the country but so far untested.
4. Boise State
In spite of the fact that Georgia lost, Boise's dismantling of them in Week 1 looks mighty impressive right now.
5. Wisconsin
Russell Wilson has been looking great for the Badgers. It's pretty obvious this is the best team in the Big Ten right now.
6. Texas A&M
This is going to be a really tough team to get by in the Big 12 this year with a senior at QB and a monster defense.
7. Oklahoma State
With Brandon Weedon and Justin Blackmon back, this is going to be one of the most potent offenses in the nation.
8. Stanford
With Andrew Luck, anything is possible.
9. Nebraska
Can't wait to see how they stack up with the rest of the Big Ten. Back-to-back battles with Wisconsin and Ohio State are going to be very interesting.
10. Florida State
I'm still not really 100% sold on this team with E.J. Manuel under center. But then, who's going to beat them in the ACC other than Virginia Tech?
11. Virginia Tech
12. West Virginia
13. South Carolina
14. Arkansas
15. Oregon
16. Baylor
17. South Florida
18. Michigan State
19. Florida
20. Ohio State
21. Texas
22. Auburn
23. Arizona State
24. Michigan
25. FIU
AP Top 25
1. Oklahoma
2. Alabama (+1)
3. LSU (-1)
4. Boise State
5. Florida State
6. Stanford
7. Wisconsin (+1)
8. Oklahoma State (+1)
9. Texas A&M (-2)
10. Nebraska
11. South Carolina (+1)
12. Oregon (+1)
13. Virginia Tech (-2)
14. Arkansas
15. Michigan State (+2)
16. Florida (+2)
17. Ohio State (-2)
18. West Virginia (+1)
19. Baylor (+1)
20. South Florida (+2)
21. Auburn (+6)
22. Arizona State (+4)
23. TCU (+2)
24. Texas
25. Mississippi State (-9)
Biggest Winners:
-Alabama - another win against a mediocre Penn State team and they're back out in front of LSU
-Wisconsin & Oklahoma State - both took advantage of Texas A&M's bye week by looking impressive against inferior teams
-South Carolina & Oregon - Virginia Tech's unimpressive win over (a very underrated) East Carolina let the door open for SC and Oregon to jump the Hokies (in spite of the fact that SC looked equally unimpressive against a now-0-and-2 Georgia team).
-Michigan State, Florida, and South Florida - an unimpressive win by the Buckeyes over Toledo and MSU's loss to Auburn bumped the Spartans, Gators, and Bulls up two spots each as they all cruised to easy victories.
-Auburn - proved that Utah State was tougher than you think with an impressive win over Mississippi State
-Arizona State - great win over Missouri (although I thought Mizzou was overrated all along)
-TCU - somehow leapfrogged Texas with a win over Air Force
-Georgia - that the Bulldogs are actually still receiving votes from both polls is a testament to how tough the schedule has been...they'll still get 8 or 9 wins and play in a decent bowl
Biggest Losers:
-LSU - the only team that has beaten a top 5 opponent and they get jumped by Bama
-Texas A&M - watched from home as Wisconsin and Oklahoma State passed them by
-Virginia Tech & Ohio State - struggles putting away inferior opponents left the Hokies and Buckeyes open to two teams apiece passing them by
-Texas - has won their first two games and yet were passed over by a 1-1 TCU team in the big slide due to MSU's loss
USA Today Top 25
1. Oklahoma
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Boise State (+1)
5. Florida State (-1)
6. Stanford
7. Oklahoma State
8. Wisconsin (+1)
9. Texas A&M (-1)
10. Nebraska
11. South Carolina (+1)
12. Virginia Tech (-1)
13. Arkansas
14. Oregon
15. Michigan State (+1)
16. Ohio State (-1)
17. Florida (+1)
18. Arizona State (+5)
19. Auburn (+3)
20. West Virginia (+4)
21. Texas
22. South Florida (+5)
23. TCU (+2)
24. Baylor (+2)
25. Mississippi State (-8)
Biggest Winners:
-Boise State - apparently the coaches are sold on the Broncos after seeing the Bulldogs go toe-to-toe with the Gamecocks
-Wisconsin - jumping the Aggies on their bye week
-South Carolina & Michigan State - jumping a spot after lackluster wins by the Hokies and Buckeyes
-Arizona State, Auburn, West Virginia, and South Florida - big jumps for all four
Biggest Losers:
-Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, and Ohio State - all dropped a spot without losing a game
-Texas - jumped over by Arizona State, Auburn, and West Virginia despite a win
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Hobbitcore's College Football Corner -- Week 2
Last Week
Highlights: Great start to the year on the Upset of the Week pick. Also I totally called Auburn and USC struggling mightily against seemingly inferior opponents as well as BYU winning a defensive battle with Ole Miss.
Lowlights: Massively overestimated Georgia and underestimated LSU as well as the impact of Miami's suspensions (more on that in just a bit). I also don't know why I thought I should take a crack at picking Colorado/Hawaii. Maybe I should exercise some veto power over my plan to pick every game that's on basic cable.
The Rest: Picked Michigan and Ohio State to obliterate Western Michigan and Akron. Big whoop. Overestimated Tulsa's competitiveness against Oklahoma (Sooners even covered the spread, totally screwing over anyone who made a parlay with my "Out-of-Whack Spreads"). West Virginia beat Marshall a bit more comfortably than I expected as well.
Current Record
Overall: 8-4
Upsets: 1-0
Spreads: 2-1
HEADLINES
-First of all, if there was any doubt how much the Canes missed those eight suspended starters, I can only assume it's been put to rest. Stephen Morris, despite a stellar performance that will likely get lost in his unimpressive numbers, sorely missed Travis Benjamin's blazing speed and Aldarius Johnson's height and length, especially on a few slight overthrows that were very nearly touchdowns (although it bears mentioning that the young, inexperienced fill-ins on the UM receiving corps did a tremendous job, especially Allen Hurns). The defensive line missed Marcus Forston's and Adewale Ojomo's massive bodies and strong push up the middle as well as Olivier Vernon's speed off the edge in the pass rush (and Allen Bailey's for that matter). But what they missed the most was Sean Spence's monstrous presence in the heart of that defense, especially in pass coverage over the middle--as well as the absence of Ray Ray Armstrong over the top. Danny O'Brien continually found chunk after chunk of yardage between the hash marks that normally would be negated by Spence's and Armstrong's keen instincts. Of course, it could have been a lot worse for the Canes. They battled through extremely difficult odds and displayed incredible mental toughness for such young guys in a hostile environment--the future is bright indeed for the Golden Canes, sanctions or no sanctions. They have twelve days to prepare to play host to an also-suspension-depleted Buckeye team and they'll have Benjamin, Forston, Spence, Ojomo, and Jacory Harris back (and I still don't know how he could possibly still be the starter but we'll have to see how that goes) so we'll see then what kind of team this will be (at least this year).
-I think it's safe to say that nobody improved their Heisman stock in Week 1 more than Baylor QB Robert Griffin III. 21-27 for 359 yards and 5 (yes, five) touchdowns--not too shabby. Doing that against a TCU defense that gave up 54 points and 7 touchdowns combined in five road games last year is damned impressive. "RG3" will have four more games in which the Bears will be favored (if not heavily favored) to work out any kinks to speak of and pad his stats a bit before a trip to College Station followed by a bye week, then at Oklahoma State, hosting Missouri, at Kansas, and closing out by hosting Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas. Keep your eye on this kid, not just for the Heisman but in the NFL Draft next spring.
-By the way, what the hell happened to TCU's secondary? It was like a game of NCAA Football 12 where the A.I. on the secondary was turned all the way down, deep ball after deep ball sailing over their heads. Give RG3 credit for being able to drop the football into a milk crate from 40+ yards but the TCU secondary had no answer for those deep balls. And while we're on the subject of lousy performances in the secondary this weekend, in spite of the fact that they won, Auburn's back four were exposed over and over again by Utah State (yes, Utah State...the Aggies...) and that's deeply troubling if you're a Tigers fan. This is somewhat of a down year for QBs in the SEC but Auburn still has to face Stephen Garcia, Aaron Murray, and Tyler Wilson(/Bobby Petrino), all on the road. Even Jordan Jefferson and John Brantley could give this group fits. Phillip Lolley and Tommy Thigpen better coach these kids WAY up or they're liable to get pantsed by the more formidable gunslingers in the SEC.
-I've been a college football fan for over 20 years but this past Thursday marks the first ever time I've attended a football game of a team representing the school I'm attending. In the pouring rain, no less. Pretty fucking cool. FIU dominated North Texas 41-16 but it was 28-0 at the end of the first quarter. Mario Cristobal has something special going on just up the road from "Death Penalty U" (and stands to benefit immensely from the inevitable sanctions against the Canes). I don't know that it would surprise me if they made a run at an undefeated season and a BCS bowl but that's expecting quite a lot. We'll see how they do at Louisville this Friday on ESPN.
-Speaking of pouring rain...anyone who STILL doesn't believe in global warming need only look at the opening week of the college football season in which several games were either delayed or called due to lightning. Tell me you honestly don't recognize the new trend of weather anomalies slowly becoming the norm. Earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes; I generally think people who believe this 2012 business are slightly troubled but every time there's a new weather anomaly, I get a little more nervous about next December 21st...
Florida International at Louisville -- ESPN -- Friday, September 9th, 7:00pm
This is an interesting matchup of a mid-level Big East team and the defending Sun Belt Champs. FIU definitely has the athletes on defense to keep up with Louisville but the interesting thing to watch will be when FIU has the ball. They have a potentially dynamic offense littered with veterans, led by QB Wesley Carroll and WR T.Y. Hilton as well as a solid offensive line but it remains to be seen how they'll match up with BCS conference athletes. Still, Louisville is from the Big East and they're not even a good Big East team. I see Carroll and T.Y. hooking up for at least one game-changing big play being the difference in an otherwise defensive battle.
Hobbitcore sez: Florida International
No. 21 Missouri at Arizona State -- ESPN -- Friday, September 9th, 10:30pm
I kinda think Missouri is way overrated to even be ranked right now. Without Chase Daniel I don't see them doing much of anything. I actually like the Sun Devils in this one.
Hobbitcore sez: Arizona State
No. 3 Alabama at No. 23 Penn State -- ABC -- 3:30pm
Penn State is just totally outmanned here. Alabama may not have much of a QB but they're absolutely LOADED everywhere else. Penn State has NO QB or much of an offense to speak of in general. Alabama blows them away even worse than last year.
Hobbitcore sez: Alabama
No. 12 South Carolina at Georgia -- ESPN -- 4:30pm
Spurrier needs to seriously relax. Stephen Garcia is the guy and he seems to be the only one who doesn't know it. If he would just settle down and let his QB play, this team could be back in the SEC title game this year, possibly even with a (slim) chance of winning. On this day, he will pick apart the underachieving Georgia secondary between the hedges and lead the Gamecocks to a comfortable win.
Hobbitcore sez: South Carolina
Brigham Young at No. 24 Texas -- ESPN2 -- 7:00pm
Again, I get the feeling that the Cougars will give the Longhorns a game with their defense. If Texas can get a running game going, they might run away with it. If not, it could be another defensive struggle for BYU.
Hobbitcore sez: Texas
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Utah at USC -- Vs -- 7:30pm
This is also probably the game I'm most interested in this weekend. Utah's first big Pac-12 test. I can't wait to see what happens in this one. USC was alright on defense last week (albeit against Minnesota) but the offense struggled and Utah is a team that's been playing better defense than most of the (former) Pac-10 over the last couple years.
The Upset Hobbit sez: Utah
GAME OF THE WEEK
Notre Dame at Michigan -- ESPN -- 8:00pm
It was actually going to be Gamecocks/Bulldogs until Georgia got pantsed on national television by Boise State. In spite of the fact that neither team is ranked, this is still a very intriguing game chock full of talented kids with NFL futures. It's also always fun watching the Denard Robinson show--plus you never know when Brian Kelly's going to freak out on the air.
Keys to the Game
Notre Dame:
-Keep Denard between the tackles
-Play assignment football
-Don't turn the ball over
Michigan:
-Spread the defense (varying playcalling)
-Create turnovers
-Don't let Denard get hurt
Hobbitpick: Michigan 27, Notre Dame 22
Out-of-Whack Spreads
Stanford (-20.5) over Duke
South Carolina (-3) over Georgia
Utah over USC (-9)
My Heisman Ballot (if the voting ended today)
1. QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor
2. QB Kellen Moore, Boise State
3. QB Matt Barkley, USC
BCS Predictions
ACC: Florida State over Virginia Tech
Big East: South Florida
Big 10: Wisconsin over Nebraska
Big 12: Oklahoma
Pac 12: Stanford over Utah
SEC: Alabama over South Carolina
BCS Championship: Oklahoma over Stanford
Sugar: Alabama over South Florida
Orange: Florida State over Texas
Fiesta: Nebraska over FIU (:P)
Rose: Wisconsin over Oregon
Highlights: Great start to the year on the Upset of the Week pick. Also I totally called Auburn and USC struggling mightily against seemingly inferior opponents as well as BYU winning a defensive battle with Ole Miss.
Lowlights: Massively overestimated Georgia and underestimated LSU as well as the impact of Miami's suspensions (more on that in just a bit). I also don't know why I thought I should take a crack at picking Colorado/Hawaii. Maybe I should exercise some veto power over my plan to pick every game that's on basic cable.
The Rest: Picked Michigan and Ohio State to obliterate Western Michigan and Akron. Big whoop. Overestimated Tulsa's competitiveness against Oklahoma (Sooners even covered the spread, totally screwing over anyone who made a parlay with my "Out-of-Whack Spreads"). West Virginia beat Marshall a bit more comfortably than I expected as well.
Current Record
Overall: 8-4
Upsets: 1-0
Spreads: 2-1
HEADLINES
-First of all, if there was any doubt how much the Canes missed those eight suspended starters, I can only assume it's been put to rest. Stephen Morris, despite a stellar performance that will likely get lost in his unimpressive numbers, sorely missed Travis Benjamin's blazing speed and Aldarius Johnson's height and length, especially on a few slight overthrows that were very nearly touchdowns (although it bears mentioning that the young, inexperienced fill-ins on the UM receiving corps did a tremendous job, especially Allen Hurns). The defensive line missed Marcus Forston's and Adewale Ojomo's massive bodies and strong push up the middle as well as Olivier Vernon's speed off the edge in the pass rush (and Allen Bailey's for that matter). But what they missed the most was Sean Spence's monstrous presence in the heart of that defense, especially in pass coverage over the middle--as well as the absence of Ray Ray Armstrong over the top. Danny O'Brien continually found chunk after chunk of yardage between the hash marks that normally would be negated by Spence's and Armstrong's keen instincts. Of course, it could have been a lot worse for the Canes. They battled through extremely difficult odds and displayed incredible mental toughness for such young guys in a hostile environment--the future is bright indeed for the Golden Canes, sanctions or no sanctions. They have twelve days to prepare to play host to an also-suspension-depleted Buckeye team and they'll have Benjamin, Forston, Spence, Ojomo, and Jacory Harris back (and I still don't know how he could possibly still be the starter but we'll have to see how that goes) so we'll see then what kind of team this will be (at least this year).
-I think it's safe to say that nobody improved their Heisman stock in Week 1 more than Baylor QB Robert Griffin III. 21-27 for 359 yards and 5 (yes, five) touchdowns--not too shabby. Doing that against a TCU defense that gave up 54 points and 7 touchdowns combined in five road games last year is damned impressive. "RG3" will have four more games in which the Bears will be favored (if not heavily favored) to work out any kinks to speak of and pad his stats a bit before a trip to College Station followed by a bye week, then at Oklahoma State, hosting Missouri, at Kansas, and closing out by hosting Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas. Keep your eye on this kid, not just for the Heisman but in the NFL Draft next spring.
-By the way, what the hell happened to TCU's secondary? It was like a game of NCAA Football 12 where the A.I. on the secondary was turned all the way down, deep ball after deep ball sailing over their heads. Give RG3 credit for being able to drop the football into a milk crate from 40+ yards but the TCU secondary had no answer for those deep balls. And while we're on the subject of lousy performances in the secondary this weekend, in spite of the fact that they won, Auburn's back four were exposed over and over again by Utah State (yes, Utah State...the Aggies...) and that's deeply troubling if you're a Tigers fan. This is somewhat of a down year for QBs in the SEC but Auburn still has to face Stephen Garcia, Aaron Murray, and Tyler Wilson(/Bobby Petrino), all on the road. Even Jordan Jefferson and John Brantley could give this group fits. Phillip Lolley and Tommy Thigpen better coach these kids WAY up or they're liable to get pantsed by the more formidable gunslingers in the SEC.
-I've been a college football fan for over 20 years but this past Thursday marks the first ever time I've attended a football game of a team representing the school I'm attending. In the pouring rain, no less. Pretty fucking cool. FIU dominated North Texas 41-16 but it was 28-0 at the end of the first quarter. Mario Cristobal has something special going on just up the road from "Death Penalty U" (and stands to benefit immensely from the inevitable sanctions against the Canes). I don't know that it would surprise me if they made a run at an undefeated season and a BCS bowl but that's expecting quite a lot. We'll see how they do at Louisville this Friday on ESPN.
-Speaking of pouring rain...anyone who STILL doesn't believe in global warming need only look at the opening week of the college football season in which several games were either delayed or called due to lightning. Tell me you honestly don't recognize the new trend of weather anomalies slowly becoming the norm. Earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes; I generally think people who believe this 2012 business are slightly troubled but every time there's a new weather anomaly, I get a little more nervous about next December 21st...
Florida International at Louisville -- ESPN -- Friday, September 9th, 7:00pm
This is an interesting matchup of a mid-level Big East team and the defending Sun Belt Champs. FIU definitely has the athletes on defense to keep up with Louisville but the interesting thing to watch will be when FIU has the ball. They have a potentially dynamic offense littered with veterans, led by QB Wesley Carroll and WR T.Y. Hilton as well as a solid offensive line but it remains to be seen how they'll match up with BCS conference athletes. Still, Louisville is from the Big East and they're not even a good Big East team. I see Carroll and T.Y. hooking up for at least one game-changing big play being the difference in an otherwise defensive battle.
Hobbitcore sez: Florida International
No. 21 Missouri at Arizona State -- ESPN -- Friday, September 9th, 10:30pm
I kinda think Missouri is way overrated to even be ranked right now. Without Chase Daniel I don't see them doing much of anything. I actually like the Sun Devils in this one.
Hobbitcore sez: Arizona State
No. 3 Alabama at No. 23 Penn State -- ABC -- 3:30pm
Penn State is just totally outmanned here. Alabama may not have much of a QB but they're absolutely LOADED everywhere else. Penn State has NO QB or much of an offense to speak of in general. Alabama blows them away even worse than last year.
Hobbitcore sez: Alabama
No. 12 South Carolina at Georgia -- ESPN -- 4:30pm
Spurrier needs to seriously relax. Stephen Garcia is the guy and he seems to be the only one who doesn't know it. If he would just settle down and let his QB play, this team could be back in the SEC title game this year, possibly even with a (slim) chance of winning. On this day, he will pick apart the underachieving Georgia secondary between the hedges and lead the Gamecocks to a comfortable win.
Hobbitcore sez: South Carolina
Brigham Young at No. 24 Texas -- ESPN2 -- 7:00pm
Again, I get the feeling that the Cougars will give the Longhorns a game with their defense. If Texas can get a running game going, they might run away with it. If not, it could be another defensive struggle for BYU.
Hobbitcore sez: Texas
UPSET OF THE WEEK
Utah at USC -- Vs -- 7:30pm
This is also probably the game I'm most interested in this weekend. Utah's first big Pac-12 test. I can't wait to see what happens in this one. USC was alright on defense last week (albeit against Minnesota) but the offense struggled and Utah is a team that's been playing better defense than most of the (former) Pac-10 over the last couple years.
The Upset Hobbit sez: Utah
GAME OF THE WEEK
Notre Dame at Michigan -- ESPN -- 8:00pm
It was actually going to be Gamecocks/Bulldogs until Georgia got pantsed on national television by Boise State. In spite of the fact that neither team is ranked, this is still a very intriguing game chock full of talented kids with NFL futures. It's also always fun watching the Denard Robinson show--plus you never know when Brian Kelly's going to freak out on the air.
Keys to the Game
Notre Dame:
-Keep Denard between the tackles
-Play assignment football
-Don't turn the ball over
Michigan:
-Spread the defense (varying playcalling)
-Create turnovers
-Don't let Denard get hurt
Hobbitpick: Michigan 27, Notre Dame 22
Out-of-Whack Spreads
Stanford (-20.5) over Duke
South Carolina (-3) over Georgia
Utah over USC (-9)
My Heisman Ballot (if the voting ended today)
1. QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor
2. QB Kellen Moore, Boise State
3. QB Matt Barkley, USC
BCS Predictions
ACC: Florida State over Virginia Tech
Big East: South Florida
Big 10: Wisconsin over Nebraska
Big 12: Oklahoma
Pac 12: Stanford over Utah
SEC: Alabama over South Carolina
BCS Championship: Oklahoma over Stanford
Sugar: Alabama over South Florida
Orange: Florida State over Texas
Fiesta: Nebraska over FIU (:P)
Rose: Wisconsin over Oregon
Friday, September 2, 2011
Triumphant Return of Hobbitcore's College Football Corner #67
HEADLINES
Usually I'd talk about the headlines from the past week in this section but this is Week One and I got a lot of that venting out in my piece about the Nevin Shapiro debacle. Also, I'm gonna try to start getting these done on Thursday afternoons before the Thursday game is played. The latest format I'm going with is just picking all the games that are on basic cable. Seems like a sound strategy. I'll also be bringing back old weekly favorites like "Out-of-Whack Spreads", "My Heisman Ballot (If the Voting Ended Today)" (as I was typing this, Robert Griffin was kicking off his campaign for Heisman), and my BCS predictions (predicting the winner of each conference, their BCS bowl matchup, and the result). Without further ado...
Akron at No. 18 Ohio State -- ESPN -- 12:00pm
OSU has five players suspended. Fortunately they're hosting Akron. Everyone will be drunk in the parking lot by halftime playing beer pong and sack toss.
Hobbitcore sez: Ohio State
Utah State at No. 23 Auburn -- ESPN2 -- 12:00pm
Auburn lost the heart of its offense and defense but they didn't lose the whole thing. This team is gonna be better than people think; I could see them challenging for the SEC West this year. They won't look like world-beaters against an underrated Utah State team that nearly picked off Oklahoma last year but Michael Dyer and Brandon McCaleb will carry them to a shootout win.
Hobbitcore sez: Auburn
Minnesota at No. 25 USC -- ABC/ESPN2 -- 3:30pm
USC is gonna be really hard to get a read on entering year two of probation. Matt Barkley is due for a breakout season but the defense has become more and more porous over the last few years. Expect them to beat Minnesota but I wouldn't exactly bet money on it.
Hobbitcore sez: USC
Western Michigan at Michigan -- ABC/ESPN2 -- 3:30pm
Denard Robinson kicks off his second crack at a Heisman. Should rack up some nice numbers as long as he doesn't snap in half.
Hobbitcore sez: Michigan
Brigham Young at Ole Miss -- ESPN -- 4:45pm
Talk about two teams you have no idea what to expect from. Ole Miss appears to be on the verge of resurgence under Houston Nutt and BYU is coming off one of the most inconsistent, night-and-day seasons you'll ever see in which they started 1-4 and ended up winning their bowl game 52-24. I have a hunch this could turn out to be a defensive battle. If it is, I like BYU's chances.
Hobbitcore sez: Brigham Young
Tulsa at No. 1 Oklahoma -- FX -- 7:00pm
This might be closer than people might expect, Tulsa isn't anything to sneeze at. But OU will just be too much.
Hobbitcore sez: Oklahoma
No. 5 Boise State at No. 19 Georgia -- ESPN -- 8:00pm
If you like potent passing attacks, you'll want to tune into this one. Kellen Moore and Aaron Murray will undoubtedly be slinging the rock around quite a bit. My hunch is that the BCS conference team is overdue to win one of these big time matchups with Boise State and Georgia is a legit contender for the SEC East so I don't really see Boise State getting another high-profile win here.
Hobbitcore sez: Georgia
Colorado at Hawaii -- ESPN2 -- 10:15pm
I couldn't tell you the first thing about either of these teams but my gut says Colorado is due for a resurgence.
Hobbitcore sez: Colorado
Marshall at No. 24 West Virginia -- ESPN -- Sunday, September 4th, 3:30pm
Marshall is looking for revenge for their heartbreaking loss to the Mountaineers in 2010 in which they gave up a 21-6 lead, losing 24-21 in overtime. This rivalry is starting to heat up and a team looking for its first win in a rivalry can be a dangerous thing. Still I think Geno Smith will be too much for the Thundering Herd late in the game and the Mountaineers will once again barely escape.
Hobbitcore sez: West Virginia
Miami (FL) at Maryland -- ESPN -- Monday, September 5th, 8:00pm
Miami will be without Jacory Harris, Sean Spence, Marcus Forston, Adewale Ojomo, Travis Benjamin, Olivier Vernon, Ray Ray Armstrong, and Dyron Dye. All except Vernon (6 games), Armstrong, and Dye (4 games each) will be back for Ohio State (and Al Golden has maintained that the QB competition will stay open until the Canes take on the Buckeyes). Also Aldarius Johnson is suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. It's kind of interesting because there was a period in 2009 where this team played without almost all of these guys, so don't underestimate this team because of all this missing talent (and don't forget what North Carolina almost did against LSU last year on opening night). I really have a feeling that Golden will have this team ready and they will impress people. Stephen Morris will be just fine and there are more than enough capable running backs. The question mark is at WR for the Canes with Benjamin and Johnson sidelined. If the receivers help Stephen Morris out, he'll have a great game. If not, the Canes might be grounded, leaving them either in a defensive battle or in a hole they might not be able to dig out of. I think the defense will be just fine and the Canes will win fairly comfortably but not comfortably enough for Canes fans.
Hobbitcore sez: Miami
UPSET OF THE WEEK
South Florida at No. 16 Notre Dame -- NBC -- 3:30pm
Call me crazy but I'm not buying into the hype at Notre Dame quite yet. I need to see more from Dayne Crist, especially after a second knee injury. South Florida is a good sleeper pick to win the Big East this year. This is as close as I could find to a game I think will be an upset and I'm sticking to it.
Hobbitcore sez: South Florida
GAME OF THE WEEK
No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU ABC -- 8pm
I think this might be the lowest combined rankings of two opponents in a regular season college football game since #1 Ohio State @ #2 Michigan in 2006 but don't quote me on that. LSU's Jordan Jefferson will be suspended for this game which makes it a lot easier to pick although I still think it will be a heck of a game.
Keys to the Game
Oregon:
-mix up the offense, beat LSU schematically (won't beat them with speed/athleticism)
-pressure Jarrett Lee, don't let him get into a rhythm
-win the battle at the point of attack
LSU:
-short passes to get Jarrett Lee into a rhythm
-use speed to cut off the edges
-play assignment football
Hobbitpick: Oregon
Out-of-Whack Spreads (games I would bet on if gambling were legal)
Utah State over Auburn (-23)
South Florida over Notre Dame (-10)
Tulsa over Oklahoma (-25)
My Heisman Ballot (if the voting ended today [before it begins])
1. Kellen Moore
2. LaMichael James
3. Denard Robinson
BCS Predictions
ACC: Florida State over Virginia Tech
Big East: South Florida
Big 10: Wisconsin over Nebraska
Big 12: Oklahoma
Pac 12: Stanford over Utah
SEC: Alabama over Georgia
BCS Championship: Oklahoma over Stanford
Sugar: Alabama over South Florida
Orange: Florida State over Texas
Fiesta: Nebraska over FIU (:P)
Rose: Wisconsin over Oregon
P.S. I just realized that--barring a Pac 12 or Big 10 champion playing in the national title game--there will be two new conference championship games in which the participants will be playing for a spot in the Rose Bowl. That's kinda cool...
Usually I'd talk about the headlines from the past week in this section but this is Week One and I got a lot of that venting out in my piece about the Nevin Shapiro debacle. Also, I'm gonna try to start getting these done on Thursday afternoons before the Thursday game is played. The latest format I'm going with is just picking all the games that are on basic cable. Seems like a sound strategy. I'll also be bringing back old weekly favorites like "Out-of-Whack Spreads", "My Heisman Ballot (If the Voting Ended Today)" (as I was typing this, Robert Griffin was kicking off his campaign for Heisman), and my BCS predictions (predicting the winner of each conference, their BCS bowl matchup, and the result). Without further ado...
Akron at No. 18 Ohio State -- ESPN -- 12:00pm
OSU has five players suspended. Fortunately they're hosting Akron. Everyone will be drunk in the parking lot by halftime playing beer pong and sack toss.
Hobbitcore sez: Ohio State
Utah State at No. 23 Auburn -- ESPN2 -- 12:00pm
Auburn lost the heart of its offense and defense but they didn't lose the whole thing. This team is gonna be better than people think; I could see them challenging for the SEC West this year. They won't look like world-beaters against an underrated Utah State team that nearly picked off Oklahoma last year but Michael Dyer and Brandon McCaleb will carry them to a shootout win.
Hobbitcore sez: Auburn
Minnesota at No. 25 USC -- ABC/ESPN2 -- 3:30pm
USC is gonna be really hard to get a read on entering year two of probation. Matt Barkley is due for a breakout season but the defense has become more and more porous over the last few years. Expect them to beat Minnesota but I wouldn't exactly bet money on it.
Hobbitcore sez: USC
Western Michigan at Michigan -- ABC/ESPN2 -- 3:30pm
Denard Robinson kicks off his second crack at a Heisman. Should rack up some nice numbers as long as he doesn't snap in half.
Hobbitcore sez: Michigan
Brigham Young at Ole Miss -- ESPN -- 4:45pm
Talk about two teams you have no idea what to expect from. Ole Miss appears to be on the verge of resurgence under Houston Nutt and BYU is coming off one of the most inconsistent, night-and-day seasons you'll ever see in which they started 1-4 and ended up winning their bowl game 52-24. I have a hunch this could turn out to be a defensive battle. If it is, I like BYU's chances.
Hobbitcore sez: Brigham Young
Tulsa at No. 1 Oklahoma -- FX -- 7:00pm
This might be closer than people might expect, Tulsa isn't anything to sneeze at. But OU will just be too much.
Hobbitcore sez: Oklahoma
No. 5 Boise State at No. 19 Georgia -- ESPN -- 8:00pm
If you like potent passing attacks, you'll want to tune into this one. Kellen Moore and Aaron Murray will undoubtedly be slinging the rock around quite a bit. My hunch is that the BCS conference team is overdue to win one of these big time matchups with Boise State and Georgia is a legit contender for the SEC East so I don't really see Boise State getting another high-profile win here.
Hobbitcore sez: Georgia
Colorado at Hawaii -- ESPN2 -- 10:15pm
I couldn't tell you the first thing about either of these teams but my gut says Colorado is due for a resurgence.
Hobbitcore sez: Colorado
Marshall at No. 24 West Virginia -- ESPN -- Sunday, September 4th, 3:30pm
Marshall is looking for revenge for their heartbreaking loss to the Mountaineers in 2010 in which they gave up a 21-6 lead, losing 24-21 in overtime. This rivalry is starting to heat up and a team looking for its first win in a rivalry can be a dangerous thing. Still I think Geno Smith will be too much for the Thundering Herd late in the game and the Mountaineers will once again barely escape.
Hobbitcore sez: West Virginia
Miami (FL) at Maryland -- ESPN -- Monday, September 5th, 8:00pm
Miami will be without Jacory Harris, Sean Spence, Marcus Forston, Adewale Ojomo, Travis Benjamin, Olivier Vernon, Ray Ray Armstrong, and Dyron Dye. All except Vernon (6 games), Armstrong, and Dye (4 games each) will be back for Ohio State (and Al Golden has maintained that the QB competition will stay open until the Canes take on the Buckeyes). Also Aldarius Johnson is suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. It's kind of interesting because there was a period in 2009 where this team played without almost all of these guys, so don't underestimate this team because of all this missing talent (and don't forget what North Carolina almost did against LSU last year on opening night). I really have a feeling that Golden will have this team ready and they will impress people. Stephen Morris will be just fine and there are more than enough capable running backs. The question mark is at WR for the Canes with Benjamin and Johnson sidelined. If the receivers help Stephen Morris out, he'll have a great game. If not, the Canes might be grounded, leaving them either in a defensive battle or in a hole they might not be able to dig out of. I think the defense will be just fine and the Canes will win fairly comfortably but not comfortably enough for Canes fans.
Hobbitcore sez: Miami
UPSET OF THE WEEK
South Florida at No. 16 Notre Dame -- NBC -- 3:30pm
Call me crazy but I'm not buying into the hype at Notre Dame quite yet. I need to see more from Dayne Crist, especially after a second knee injury. South Florida is a good sleeper pick to win the Big East this year. This is as close as I could find to a game I think will be an upset and I'm sticking to it.
Hobbitcore sez: South Florida
GAME OF THE WEEK
No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 4 LSU ABC -- 8pm
I think this might be the lowest combined rankings of two opponents in a regular season college football game since #1 Ohio State @ #2 Michigan in 2006 but don't quote me on that. LSU's Jordan Jefferson will be suspended for this game which makes it a lot easier to pick although I still think it will be a heck of a game.
Keys to the Game
Oregon:
-mix up the offense, beat LSU schematically (won't beat them with speed/athleticism)
-pressure Jarrett Lee, don't let him get into a rhythm
-win the battle at the point of attack
LSU:
-short passes to get Jarrett Lee into a rhythm
-use speed to cut off the edges
-play assignment football
Hobbitpick: Oregon
Out-of-Whack Spreads (games I would bet on if gambling were legal)
Utah State over Auburn (-23)
South Florida over Notre Dame (-10)
Tulsa over Oklahoma (-25)
My Heisman Ballot (if the voting ended today [before it begins])
1. Kellen Moore
2. LaMichael James
3. Denard Robinson
BCS Predictions
ACC: Florida State over Virginia Tech
Big East: South Florida
Big 10: Wisconsin over Nebraska
Big 12: Oklahoma
Pac 12: Stanford over Utah
SEC: Alabama over Georgia
BCS Championship: Oklahoma over Stanford
Sugar: Alabama over South Florida
Orange: Florida State over Texas
Fiesta: Nebraska over FIU (:P)
Rose: Wisconsin over Oregon
P.S. I just realized that--barring a Pac 12 or Big 10 champion playing in the national title game--there will be two new conference championship games in which the participants will be playing for a spot in the Rose Bowl. That's kinda cool...
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
The Nevin Shapiro Debacle From a Different Perspective
If the media is to believed, then Nevin Shapiro may have just crippled or killed the sports team I cherish above all else and have for over 20 years. I figured maybe I should write a blog post about it. Why don't we start with the basics:
-Nevin Shapiro is in jail serving a 20 year sentence for a $930 million Ponzi scheme
-He is also a former University of Miami sports booster
-Between 2002 and 2010, he claims to have provided illegal (according to the NCAA, not the law) benefits to 72 Miami Hurricanes football players (and some basketball, but who cares about UM basketball?) including use of his mansion, yacht, throwing sex parties, buying of strippers and prostitutes and even paying for a stripper's abortion
-Twelve of these players are current players (also one current basketball player)
-6 coaches are implicated as being either knowledgeable or even involved with providing of illegal benefits (Frank Haith [now at Missouri] and five assistants [two basketball, three football] including Joe Pannunzio and Jeff Stoutland [Alabama] as well as Aubrey Hill [Florida])
Now, let's start from the top. The joint investigation of these claims by the University of Miami and the NCAA has been going on for about a year now. When Shapiro first notified the university of the allegations, he and his attorneys refused to provide the university with any facts, so they reported the allegations to the NCAA and the two have been investigating ever since. Along comes Yahoo! Sports and pays Mr. Shapiro to do 100 hours of interviews and provide receipts and photographs to corroborate his claims--all this coming to the surface not too long before Shapiro's tell-all book is set to be published. He has also admitted to having an ax to grind with many of these players he provided benefits to and considered his "friends." A lot of holes are already beginning to emerge in his story, but according to the media, if even half of what he says is true, the Hurricanes deserve the Death Penalty (which, among other things, could mean shutting down the program for a full year).
A key phrase that you'll probably hear a lot in the coming days is "lack of institutional control." As far as I'm concerned, by far the most crucial issue in this mess will be A. how much can be proven about the involvement of the six coaches implicated and B. to what degree the NCAA can say these findings constitute a "lack of institutional control." Every single coach implicated in the investigation is now gone from the university. (As a matter of fact, there's a story going around about a confrontation between Shapiro and UM's Associate Athletic Director of Compliance David Reed--who was hired right around the same time as Randy Shannon took over as head coach--in the press box at halftime of the final game in the Orange Bowl where Shapiro admittedly tried to start a fight with Reed because he had been trying to keep him away from the players--which, of course, is his job. Obviously he didn't keep him far away enough but the guy was a booster and contributed a ton of money to the program which comes with many benefits, none of which are against the NCAA bylaws.) To me, the fair thing to do seems to be to punish the current administration at the university inasmuch as they can be implicated. For starters, I don't think six coaches constitutes "lack of institutional control" considering the efforts of David Reed and the compliance department. This is a rogue booster and a group of corrupt coaches. This is not an institutional failure. Moreover, the only non-student-athlete currently at the school that was around when these violations were going on is president Donna Shalala. If she can be proven to have known about these transgressions or somehow been involved then absolutely the death penalty should be levied. If not, you punish who WAS involved. First of all, every one of these coaches that can be proven to have been involved in this should be fired by whoever currently employs them but the NCAA has nothing to do with that. The same goes for the past players involved but not much chance of that happening and they're now out of the NCAA's jurisdiction. All they can do to them is vacate all wins from 2002-2010 that they are now ineligible for. A number of current players were involved. Fine. Suspend them or kick them off the team. I suppose postseason bans and reduced scholarships are inevitable but I don't think they're fair. Why should people who had nothing to do with this be punished?
The NCAA needs to seriously look at this practice of punishing future generations of NCAA sports programs for the transgressions of past generations. Though, to be sure, that's not the only practice of theirs that needs to be re-examined. It's appearing more and more as though the time has come for top-to-bottom reform of the policies that govern amateur athletes. The NCAA has become an archaic, antiquated institution and have been suppressing a multi-million dollar market for FAR too long. Bomani Jones had a great quote today in an interview on ESPN's Outside the Lines:
"I need somebody to tell me what solution [there is] that can overcome what we all know about basic economics which is that when you suppress wages, a black market is going to occur."
The students who participate in these sports are making millions and MILLIONS of dollars for these schools and don't get to see one nickel of that money. Oh sure, they get a free ride to a prestigious university, but that doesn't exactly feed a student-athlete's low-income family, does it? One player that was interviewed talked about former Canes HB Tyrone Moss taking money from Shapiro because he had a kid at the time he came into the program and he could barely feed his family. I know, I know, most of these accusations include sex parties and mansions and yachts and all manners of excess but you have to understand that many of these kids have never seen money in their lives. This is the kind of culture that gets bred when kids from poor areas who can play a sport or two suddenly come into contact with millionaire contributors to the universities that recruit them to make them money.
Let me say right now, for the record, that I'm not generally someone who is in favor of free market idealism. However, I will say this: these student athletes (and especially the ones who are good enough to make a career out of it) are recruited to these sports programs to make millions of dollars for these schools in an EXTREMELY high risk line of work (which, for those pursuing a career in it, is also an EXTREMELY short term career path) and I don't see how anyone could justify saying that they don't deserve to be compensated a lot more than they are currently. It's the only college major that prepares you for your desired career by essentially placing you in it--a weird concept considering it's one of the most hazardous careers you can go into. I think this is a suitable, if somewhat hyperbolic analogy: imagine if, when you joined the police, they offered free in-the-field training plus room and board without paying you a salary--for four years. Oh, but then they mention that after two years, if you're good enough, you can start getting paid what you're worth to the force--wouldn't be too surprising to see many of them take that offer.
Of course, I'm not suggesting college football become a free market. I can't think of anything more unfair than seeing important university programs get cut back in order to pay student athletes more money. Obviously there should be some regulation on what can be provided. But this hard-line stance that amateur athletes shalt not receive one nickel more than is needed to attend the school they play for is pathetically dated. There is a middle ground between a free market and a suppressed market. A regulated market. I don't pretend to be smart enough or know enough about policy-making to have the answer to the NCAA's problems. Maybe when I'm done with school I will, but at the moment, not so much. That will have to be up to the current NCAA policy makers. One thing is for sure: the system needs to change radically.
-Nevin Shapiro is in jail serving a 20 year sentence for a $930 million Ponzi scheme
-He is also a former University of Miami sports booster
-Between 2002 and 2010, he claims to have provided illegal (according to the NCAA, not the law) benefits to 72 Miami Hurricanes football players (and some basketball, but who cares about UM basketball?) including use of his mansion, yacht, throwing sex parties, buying of strippers and prostitutes and even paying for a stripper's abortion
-Twelve of these players are current players (also one current basketball player)
-6 coaches are implicated as being either knowledgeable or even involved with providing of illegal benefits (Frank Haith [now at Missouri] and five assistants [two basketball, three football] including Joe Pannunzio and Jeff Stoutland [Alabama] as well as Aubrey Hill [Florida])
Now, let's start from the top. The joint investigation of these claims by the University of Miami and the NCAA has been going on for about a year now. When Shapiro first notified the university of the allegations, he and his attorneys refused to provide the university with any facts, so they reported the allegations to the NCAA and the two have been investigating ever since. Along comes Yahoo! Sports and pays Mr. Shapiro to do 100 hours of interviews and provide receipts and photographs to corroborate his claims--all this coming to the surface not too long before Shapiro's tell-all book is set to be published. He has also admitted to having an ax to grind with many of these players he provided benefits to and considered his "friends." A lot of holes are already beginning to emerge in his story, but according to the media, if even half of what he says is true, the Hurricanes deserve the Death Penalty (which, among other things, could mean shutting down the program for a full year).
A key phrase that you'll probably hear a lot in the coming days is "lack of institutional control." As far as I'm concerned, by far the most crucial issue in this mess will be A. how much can be proven about the involvement of the six coaches implicated and B. to what degree the NCAA can say these findings constitute a "lack of institutional control." Every single coach implicated in the investigation is now gone from the university. (As a matter of fact, there's a story going around about a confrontation between Shapiro and UM's Associate Athletic Director of Compliance David Reed--who was hired right around the same time as Randy Shannon took over as head coach--in the press box at halftime of the final game in the Orange Bowl where Shapiro admittedly tried to start a fight with Reed because he had been trying to keep him away from the players--which, of course, is his job. Obviously he didn't keep him far away enough but the guy was a booster and contributed a ton of money to the program which comes with many benefits, none of which are against the NCAA bylaws.) To me, the fair thing to do seems to be to punish the current administration at the university inasmuch as they can be implicated. For starters, I don't think six coaches constitutes "lack of institutional control" considering the efforts of David Reed and the compliance department. This is a rogue booster and a group of corrupt coaches. This is not an institutional failure. Moreover, the only non-student-athlete currently at the school that was around when these violations were going on is president Donna Shalala. If she can be proven to have known about these transgressions or somehow been involved then absolutely the death penalty should be levied. If not, you punish who WAS involved. First of all, every one of these coaches that can be proven to have been involved in this should be fired by whoever currently employs them but the NCAA has nothing to do with that. The same goes for the past players involved but not much chance of that happening and they're now out of the NCAA's jurisdiction. All they can do to them is vacate all wins from 2002-2010 that they are now ineligible for. A number of current players were involved. Fine. Suspend them or kick them off the team. I suppose postseason bans and reduced scholarships are inevitable but I don't think they're fair. Why should people who had nothing to do with this be punished?
The NCAA needs to seriously look at this practice of punishing future generations of NCAA sports programs for the transgressions of past generations. Though, to be sure, that's not the only practice of theirs that needs to be re-examined. It's appearing more and more as though the time has come for top-to-bottom reform of the policies that govern amateur athletes. The NCAA has become an archaic, antiquated institution and have been suppressing a multi-million dollar market for FAR too long. Bomani Jones had a great quote today in an interview on ESPN's Outside the Lines:
"I need somebody to tell me what solution [there is] that can overcome what we all know about basic economics which is that when you suppress wages, a black market is going to occur."
The students who participate in these sports are making millions and MILLIONS of dollars for these schools and don't get to see one nickel of that money. Oh sure, they get a free ride to a prestigious university, but that doesn't exactly feed a student-athlete's low-income family, does it? One player that was interviewed talked about former Canes HB Tyrone Moss taking money from Shapiro because he had a kid at the time he came into the program and he could barely feed his family. I know, I know, most of these accusations include sex parties and mansions and yachts and all manners of excess but you have to understand that many of these kids have never seen money in their lives. This is the kind of culture that gets bred when kids from poor areas who can play a sport or two suddenly come into contact with millionaire contributors to the universities that recruit them to make them money.
Let me say right now, for the record, that I'm not generally someone who is in favor of free market idealism. However, I will say this: these student athletes (and especially the ones who are good enough to make a career out of it) are recruited to these sports programs to make millions of dollars for these schools in an EXTREMELY high risk line of work (which, for those pursuing a career in it, is also an EXTREMELY short term career path) and I don't see how anyone could justify saying that they don't deserve to be compensated a lot more than they are currently. It's the only college major that prepares you for your desired career by essentially placing you in it--a weird concept considering it's one of the most hazardous careers you can go into. I think this is a suitable, if somewhat hyperbolic analogy: imagine if, when you joined the police, they offered free in-the-field training plus room and board without paying you a salary--for four years. Oh, but then they mention that after two years, if you're good enough, you can start getting paid what you're worth to the force--wouldn't be too surprising to see many of them take that offer.
Of course, I'm not suggesting college football become a free market. I can't think of anything more unfair than seeing important university programs get cut back in order to pay student athletes more money. Obviously there should be some regulation on what can be provided. But this hard-line stance that amateur athletes shalt not receive one nickel more than is needed to attend the school they play for is pathetically dated. There is a middle ground between a free market and a suppressed market. A regulated market. I don't pretend to be smart enough or know enough about policy-making to have the answer to the NCAA's problems. Maybe when I'm done with school I will, but at the moment, not so much. That will have to be up to the current NCAA policy makers. One thing is for sure: the system needs to change radically.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
Week 8
Well, I took a week off last week just so I could have a little rest from the "grind" so to speak. Since I didn't pick any games last week, not much point going all the way to two weeks ago to rehash that week's entry, so let's jump straight into the headlines from this past week...
HEADLINES
-108 points in an SEC game? I've never seen anything like that in my life. I knew Arkansas's defense was porous--specifically in the secondary--and that their offense was spectacular but that was just ridiculous. I will say this for Arkansas: Bobby Petrino deserves a ton of credit for his offense being able to put up 43 on a talented Auburn D with the most talented passer in the nation sidelined. One of the most impressive feats for an offensive-minded coach is when the starting QB goes down and the offense doesn't miss a beat. Not only does it speak to the effectiveness of the offensive scheme but also directly to the level of preparation in every QB on the depth chart. Brian Kelly was the master of this at Cincinnati, where he almost perennially had 3-4 QBs every year that could step in (remember when Tony Pike was starting for the injured Dustin Grutza in 2008 and then in a game against Akron, not only did he go down but redshirt freshman Chazz Anderson replaced him and then went down himself, forcing a guy named Zach Collaros to step in and lead the team to a win). Rich Rod's current Michigan team also has two guys that can step in without missing a beat (which also has a lot to do with their highly improved offensive line). However, unfortunately for Bobby Petrino, his defense had to deal with Cameron Newton.
-The most accurate phrase I've heard to describe Cam Newton so far is "tight end body with wide receiver speed." Gator fans would kill me for this but when you really look at Cam Newton, he's bigger, stronger, and faster than Tim Tebow with a comparable arm. He doesn't necessarily have Tebow's grossly overstated intangibles, but if this guy was surrounded by the talent that Tebow was surrounded with at Florida (and he was, he just had to ride the bench behind Tebow, which is why he transferred to Auburn), he probably would have broken some records too. I mean, honestly, ESPN would lead you to believe this is blasphemy, but if you replace Tim Tebow with Cam Newton on either of the last two Gator teams (especially last year's disappointing team that was chock full of talent but sputtering on offense while Cam was sitting out a year after transferring to Auburn upon learning Tebow was coming back for his senior year) and honestly think about how much better or worse those teams would have been. I'm going out on a limb and saying that with Cam Newton at QB last year, Florida at least wins the SEC title, if not a second straight national title. One thing is for damn sure, Urban Meyer would commit more crimes than have been committed by all his Gator teams combined during his tenure (that would be 31 arrests to date and counting) just to be able to have Cam Newton running his offense this season instead of the pro-style prototype and flailing fish-out-of-water John Brantley. Which is probably why...
-Chris Rainey has rejoined the team? Really?! Wait, why am I surprised? This is the same guy (Meyer) that suspended Brandon Spikes for a HALF--not after he was caught on camera gouging the eyes of a Georgia Bulldogs running back but after there was a public outcry about Meyer not having taken any action against the star LB. And that's just one example. Meyer has proven time and again that winning trumps moral character by a wide margin on his list of priorities and with a sputtering running game which is averaging just 106 yards a game on nearly 33 carries a game for a meager 3.2 yards per carry in their last three games--all losses--Urban needs Rainey back far too urgently to let some threatening text messages get in the way. So, Gator fans, enjoy the rest of the season with "Creepy" Chris Rainey back at Jeff Demps's side in the backfield. Maybe now you might have a chance against South Carolina or Florida State--probably not though. By the way, for anyone interested, here's a terrific article in the USA Today about the Gators' arrest record under Urban (major kudos goes out to Bryant Gumbel for calling out the Gators and the NCAA on this topic).
-I'm not sure why Terrell Pryor was ever considered a Heisman candidate but I'm sure glad that's over with. It's unlikely he'll be back either, with the biggest games remaining being a road trip to Iowa and Michigan at home.
-Really South Carolina? Kentucky?! The Gators utterly annihilated this team. The funny thing is that since SC beat Alabama the week before and the Gators lost to Mississippi State, the Gamecocks can actually lose one more conference game and, as long as they beat the Gators, they'll be playing for the SEC crown.
-I have to put a little prayer/positive energy in here for Rutgers defensive tackle Eric LeGrand, who was paralyzed from the neck down last week during the Knights' overtime win against Army. Football is a cruel, violent sport and this is the risk every one of these guys takes every single time they step on the field, which is why it's important to never lose sight of what's important. This young man will be in my thoughts throughout the coming weeks and should be in every football fan's thoughts as well.
-Oh, by the way. I know this isn't college football but...Dunta Robinson's hit on DeSean Jackson. Am I the only one that thinks that this was a COMPLETELY LEGAL PLAY? He didn't lead with his helmet, he led with his shoulder, and he hit the guy in the chest, not the head--granted, he hit him under the chin, causing a concussion, but as vicious as the hit was, by the letter of the law, there was nothing illegal about it. It just looked really brutal.
-USC 42, California 0. That's not the final score. That was the score at halftime. Wow.
On that note...on with the show...
#13 Wisconsin @ #15 Iowa
This looks to be a considerably tougher matchup for the Beavers than Ohio State was. It may not seem like it but the Hawkeyes defense is substantially better than Ohio State's (especially against the run, which is Wisconsin's bread and butter) and their offense is comparable as well. Stanzi is a better thrower than Pryor and will test the Wisconsin secondary. This is an exceedingly difficult one to pick with these teams being so dead even but I'm giving the edge to the home team.
Hobbitcore sez: Iowa
#1 Oklahoma @ #11 Missouri
This is going to get a lot of attention as the primetime game of the week and with Oklahoma being the marked man as the initial BCS #1. You'll probably hear a lot of people saying that this one will be closer than expected but count me as not sold on Missouri. I like Oklahoma to win convincingly, playing with a chip on its shoulder after hearing everyone talk about how they don't deserve to be #1 in the BCS and making a statement that yes, in fact, they do.
Hobbitcore sez: Oklahoma
UPSET OF THE WEEK
#16 Nebraska @ #14 Oklahoma State
Another mostly untested Big 12 team facing a perennial power. I like matchups like this where by far the two best units in the game face each other head-to-head on the field (i.e. Oklahoma State's offense vs. Nebraska's defense). I especially like to watch the "other" match-up--the one that won't get as much attention but will be much more interesting and unpredictable (i.e. Nebraska's offense vs. Oklahoma State's defense). Conventional wisdom tells you that Nebraska has the ability on defense to slow down Justin Blackmon and company and that the Cowboys will have problems with Tyler Martinez and Roy Helu, Jr., however, the Huskers haven't faced an offense with this kind of balance or explosiveness all year and Oklahoma State's defense is a little bit underrated--they've actually been very solid against the run, only allowing about 3.3 yards a carry and just 5 rushing touchdowns all year--and all they have to do is play the run against the Huskers. This being a home game, I like the Cowboys' chances.
Hobbitcore sez: Oklahoma State
GAME OF THE WEEK
#6 LSU @ #4 Auburn
As much as this is a down year in the SEC, at least Auburn and LSU are back. This is likely to be one of the best games of the whole year with Cam Newton facing off against one of the top ten run defenses in the nation. Auburn's defense also has a lot to prove on Saturday afternoon and I think you'll see them play like it in a marquee home match-up against an inconsistent LSU offense. The LSU defense will do enough to keep this one close through three quarters but in the final 15, Cam Newton will pull a Tebow and will his team to victory with a late touchdown drive to put the game away.
Hobbitpick: Auburn 28, LSU 17
Keys to the Game
Auburn:
-Create turnovers on defense
-Block soundly on offense
-Balance on offense
LSU:
-Keep Cam Newton in the pocket
-Throw the ball effectively
-Make special teams plays count
Out-of-Whack Spreads (games I would bet money on if gambling were legal)
Wisconsin (+6.5) over Iowa
Rutgers (+13) over Pittsburgh
UAB (+20) over Mississippi State
Oklahoma (-3) over Missouri
Air Force (+18) over TCU
My Heisman Ballot (if the voting ended today)
1. Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn
2. LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
3. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State
BCS Predictions
ACC: Virginia Tech over Florida State
Big 12: Oklahoma over Nebraska
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State
Pac 10: Stanford
SEC: Auburn over South Carolina
BCS Championship: Auburn over Oklahoma
Sugar: Utah over Ohio State
Orange: Alabama over Virginia Tech
Fiesta: Boise State over Missouri
Rose: Oregon over Michigan State
HEADLINES
-108 points in an SEC game? I've never seen anything like that in my life. I knew Arkansas's defense was porous--specifically in the secondary--and that their offense was spectacular but that was just ridiculous. I will say this for Arkansas: Bobby Petrino deserves a ton of credit for his offense being able to put up 43 on a talented Auburn D with the most talented passer in the nation sidelined. One of the most impressive feats for an offensive-minded coach is when the starting QB goes down and the offense doesn't miss a beat. Not only does it speak to the effectiveness of the offensive scheme but also directly to the level of preparation in every QB on the depth chart. Brian Kelly was the master of this at Cincinnati, where he almost perennially had 3-4 QBs every year that could step in (remember when Tony Pike was starting for the injured Dustin Grutza in 2008 and then in a game against Akron, not only did he go down but redshirt freshman Chazz Anderson replaced him and then went down himself, forcing a guy named Zach Collaros to step in and lead the team to a win). Rich Rod's current Michigan team also has two guys that can step in without missing a beat (which also has a lot to do with their highly improved offensive line). However, unfortunately for Bobby Petrino, his defense had to deal with Cameron Newton.
-The most accurate phrase I've heard to describe Cam Newton so far is "tight end body with wide receiver speed." Gator fans would kill me for this but when you really look at Cam Newton, he's bigger, stronger, and faster than Tim Tebow with a comparable arm. He doesn't necessarily have Tebow's grossly overstated intangibles, but if this guy was surrounded by the talent that Tebow was surrounded with at Florida (and he was, he just had to ride the bench behind Tebow, which is why he transferred to Auburn), he probably would have broken some records too. I mean, honestly, ESPN would lead you to believe this is blasphemy, but if you replace Tim Tebow with Cam Newton on either of the last two Gator teams (especially last year's disappointing team that was chock full of talent but sputtering on offense while Cam was sitting out a year after transferring to Auburn upon learning Tebow was coming back for his senior year) and honestly think about how much better or worse those teams would have been. I'm going out on a limb and saying that with Cam Newton at QB last year, Florida at least wins the SEC title, if not a second straight national title. One thing is for damn sure, Urban Meyer would commit more crimes than have been committed by all his Gator teams combined during his tenure (that would be 31 arrests to date and counting) just to be able to have Cam Newton running his offense this season instead of the pro-style prototype and flailing fish-out-of-water John Brantley. Which is probably why...
-Chris Rainey has rejoined the team? Really?! Wait, why am I surprised? This is the same guy (Meyer) that suspended Brandon Spikes for a HALF--not after he was caught on camera gouging the eyes of a Georgia Bulldogs running back but after there was a public outcry about Meyer not having taken any action against the star LB. And that's just one example. Meyer has proven time and again that winning trumps moral character by a wide margin on his list of priorities and with a sputtering running game which is averaging just 106 yards a game on nearly 33 carries a game for a meager 3.2 yards per carry in their last three games--all losses--Urban needs Rainey back far too urgently to let some threatening text messages get in the way. So, Gator fans, enjoy the rest of the season with "Creepy" Chris Rainey back at Jeff Demps's side in the backfield. Maybe now you might have a chance against South Carolina or Florida State--probably not though. By the way, for anyone interested, here's a terrific article in the USA Today about the Gators' arrest record under Urban (major kudos goes out to Bryant Gumbel for calling out the Gators and the NCAA on this topic).
-I'm not sure why Terrell Pryor was ever considered a Heisman candidate but I'm sure glad that's over with. It's unlikely he'll be back either, with the biggest games remaining being a road trip to Iowa and Michigan at home.
-Really South Carolina? Kentucky?! The Gators utterly annihilated this team. The funny thing is that since SC beat Alabama the week before and the Gators lost to Mississippi State, the Gamecocks can actually lose one more conference game and, as long as they beat the Gators, they'll be playing for the SEC crown.
-I have to put a little prayer/positive energy in here for Rutgers defensive tackle Eric LeGrand, who was paralyzed from the neck down last week during the Knights' overtime win against Army. Football is a cruel, violent sport and this is the risk every one of these guys takes every single time they step on the field, which is why it's important to never lose sight of what's important. This young man will be in my thoughts throughout the coming weeks and should be in every football fan's thoughts as well.
-Oh, by the way. I know this isn't college football but...Dunta Robinson's hit on DeSean Jackson. Am I the only one that thinks that this was a COMPLETELY LEGAL PLAY? He didn't lead with his helmet, he led with his shoulder, and he hit the guy in the chest, not the head--granted, he hit him under the chin, causing a concussion, but as vicious as the hit was, by the letter of the law, there was nothing illegal about it. It just looked really brutal.
-USC 42, California 0. That's not the final score. That was the score at halftime. Wow.
On that note...on with the show...
#13 Wisconsin @ #15 Iowa
This looks to be a considerably tougher matchup for the Beavers than Ohio State was. It may not seem like it but the Hawkeyes defense is substantially better than Ohio State's (especially against the run, which is Wisconsin's bread and butter) and their offense is comparable as well. Stanzi is a better thrower than Pryor and will test the Wisconsin secondary. This is an exceedingly difficult one to pick with these teams being so dead even but I'm giving the edge to the home team.
Hobbitcore sez: Iowa
#1 Oklahoma @ #11 Missouri
This is going to get a lot of attention as the primetime game of the week and with Oklahoma being the marked man as the initial BCS #1. You'll probably hear a lot of people saying that this one will be closer than expected but count me as not sold on Missouri. I like Oklahoma to win convincingly, playing with a chip on its shoulder after hearing everyone talk about how they don't deserve to be #1 in the BCS and making a statement that yes, in fact, they do.
Hobbitcore sez: Oklahoma
UPSET OF THE WEEK
#16 Nebraska @ #14 Oklahoma State
Another mostly untested Big 12 team facing a perennial power. I like matchups like this where by far the two best units in the game face each other head-to-head on the field (i.e. Oklahoma State's offense vs. Nebraska's defense). I especially like to watch the "other" match-up--the one that won't get as much attention but will be much more interesting and unpredictable (i.e. Nebraska's offense vs. Oklahoma State's defense). Conventional wisdom tells you that Nebraska has the ability on defense to slow down Justin Blackmon and company and that the Cowboys will have problems with Tyler Martinez and Roy Helu, Jr., however, the Huskers haven't faced an offense with this kind of balance or explosiveness all year and Oklahoma State's defense is a little bit underrated--they've actually been very solid against the run, only allowing about 3.3 yards a carry and just 5 rushing touchdowns all year--and all they have to do is play the run against the Huskers. This being a home game, I like the Cowboys' chances.
Hobbitcore sez: Oklahoma State
GAME OF THE WEEK
#6 LSU @ #4 Auburn
As much as this is a down year in the SEC, at least Auburn and LSU are back. This is likely to be one of the best games of the whole year with Cam Newton facing off against one of the top ten run defenses in the nation. Auburn's defense also has a lot to prove on Saturday afternoon and I think you'll see them play like it in a marquee home match-up against an inconsistent LSU offense. The LSU defense will do enough to keep this one close through three quarters but in the final 15, Cam Newton will pull a Tebow and will his team to victory with a late touchdown drive to put the game away.
Hobbitpick: Auburn 28, LSU 17
Keys to the Game
Auburn:
-Create turnovers on defense
-Block soundly on offense
-Balance on offense
LSU:
-Keep Cam Newton in the pocket
-Throw the ball effectively
-Make special teams plays count
Out-of-Whack Spreads (games I would bet money on if gambling were legal)
Wisconsin (+6.5) over Iowa
Rutgers (+13) over Pittsburgh
UAB (+20) over Mississippi State
Oklahoma (-3) over Missouri
Air Force (+18) over TCU
My Heisman Ballot (if the voting ended today)
1. Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn
2. LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
3. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State
BCS Predictions
ACC: Virginia Tech over Florida State
Big 12: Oklahoma over Nebraska
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State
Pac 10: Stanford
SEC: Auburn over South Carolina
BCS Championship: Auburn over Oklahoma
Sugar: Utah over Ohio State
Orange: Alabama over Virginia Tech
Fiesta: Boise State over Missouri
Rose: Oregon over Michigan State
Monday, October 18, 2010
Week 7: Top 25
Well, I took a week off this week because A. it was sort of an unspectacular week of games and B. I didn't feel like it, so in addition to the top 25, I'll do my Heisman ballot and BCS predictions in this post...
1. Auburn
Why They Should Be #1: It's almost a toss-up between the top three teams in the country. Bottom line is, Auburn has the best resumé in the country right now. Two terrific comeback wins over South Carolina and Clemson, an impressive shootout win over Arkansas, and the Mississippi State win on the road suddenly looks a lot more impressive. Cameron Newton has officially supplanted Denard Robinson as the most exciting player to watch in college football as well as the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: The defense has struggled immensely in pass defense and is ranked 63rd in the country in scoring defense which is an outright abomination at Auburn, especially considering the talent they have on defense this (and every) year.
2. Boise State
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: Say what you want about the schedule but the Broncos have been a model of consistency. Many national champions in college football history have faced comparably soft schedules and not dominated in the way Boise State has. To go along with the very respectable wins over Virginia Tech and Oregon State, the Broncos have won their other four games (Wyoming, New Mexico State, Toledo, and San Jose State) by a combined score of 215-20, which is roughly an average score of 53-5. The Broncos are ranked 3rd in the nation in both scoring offense and scoring defense and are ranked 14th in the country in both passing offense and rushing offense.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: It's getting really old to keep talking about the schedule but there really isn't much else you can say about this team. Their opponents' combined records are 16-24 and only Virginia Tech, Oregon State, and Toledo average over 13 points per game.
3. Oregon
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: Oregon still possesses one of the five most impressive wins of the season--arguably the most impressive--and is, of course, leading the nation in scoring offense. They're also 16th in the nation in scoring defense.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: The defense's nice average has a lot to do with some easy early games. In the last three games combined, the defense has yielded 84 points and 1451 total yards (including 973 through the air). The Ducks face one of the three worst passing offenses in college football next week when UCLA comes to Autzen Stadium Thursday night. However, they will have to face Matt Barkley and Jake Locker in their next two games as well as Nick Foles on Thanksgiving weekend. They'll have a long week to prepare for Barkley but they have plenty of work to do in that long week.
4. Oklahoma
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: The Florida State win looks better every week as the Noles continue to win. The Texas win looks a lot better now also. Landry Jones has quietly completed 67.4% of his passes for 1791 yards and 14 TDs with only 3 INTs.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: It's still hard to justify beating Utah State, Air Force, and Cincinnati by a combined 12 points but this team appears to have put that behind them. They've only played one road game so far and now begin a stretch where 4 of their last 6 games will be on the road, including big time matchups with Missouri and Oklahoma State.
5. Michigan State
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: This is the most balanced team in the country with the second best resumé in the country with wins over Wisconsin (who just knocked off former #1 Ohio State), Michigan (on the road), and Notre Dame. The only real test left for the Spartans should be the road trip to Iowa City and possibly a season-ending trip to Happy Valley, although the Nittany Lions could struggle just to become bowl eligible this year.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: It shouldn't. This team is just about the least sexy top 10 team but with their consistency, their balance, and their phenomenal coaching, I really believe this team should be talking national title.
6. Alabama
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: This is still probably the most talented team in the country. The defense is 5th in the nation in points allowed and the offense is one of the most balanced in the country. They also have two of the three best running backs in the nation in their backfield.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: The secondary's youth was exposed by both Ryan Mallet and Stephen Garcia. Alabama has yet to prove they can dominate an opponent on the road, especially in the first half. Championship teams go on the road against quality opponents and step on their throats from the opening gun. This team does the exact opposite, coming out flat on the road, letting teams get big leads and get their crowd into the game and having to dig themselves out of a big hole to get the win. They pulled it off against Arkansas but they fell short in Columbia.
7. TCU
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: I don't care who they're playing, winning games by an average score of 40-9 is damn impressive. Even more impressive is winning their last three games by a combined score of 103-3. The Horned Frogs lead the nation in scoring defense and that's an impressive feat for any team that's playing FBS competition. Don't forget this team obliterated a highly underrated Baylor team and beat a very good Oregon State team
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: 21-27 opponents' record. Tennessee Tech, by the way, is 3-4 and they play in the FCS, so that stat is actually sort of deceiving.
8. Ohio State
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: It shouldn't. Terrell Pryor's arm has been overrated all season as has their run defense (who hadn't faced a team in the top 25 in rushing offense all season: Marshall is 110th, Miami (FL) is 49th, Ohio is 45th, Eastern Michigan is 73rd, Illinois is 29th, Indiana is 104th) and both those things led to the loss in Madison Saturday. Certainly this is still an elite defensive team, ranked 7th in the nation in passing defense and 6th in total defense but the Buckeyes learned the hard way last year that--even in the Big Ten--you can't win championships with just defense.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: I haven't been convinced Ohio State was a top five team since I watched them play against Miami. The Buckeyes settled for five field goals in that game, three of them on drives that started inside the Miami 30 yard line.
9. LSU
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: I'm tempted to say it shouldn't but the two quarterback thing seems to be working--or at least it worked against the Gators. If Jarrett Lee throws the ball well and Jordan Jefferson is running the option, this team can probably beat anyone in the SEC. That's a big "if" though.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: I don't know if it's more impressive or depressing to be 7-0 and ranked 70th in the nation in scoring. It won't last though. LSU will have a hard time beating Auburn, Alabama, or Arkansas even if they do score 26 points (their average)--which they won't.
10. Stanford
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: The Oregon loss is forgiveable--Tennessee couldn't stop the Ducks offense even if they used 13 guys on every play. They bounced back and beat a very good USC team in the final seconds. This is still one of the best, most balanced offenses in the country. People forget about their impressive blowout wins over Notre Dame and UCLA on the road now that Oregon is #1 in the country.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: The defense is 58th in the country in points allowed and have allowed 87 points and 1124 yards in their last two games. The dysfunction hasn't been limited to one aspect of the game either--the Ducks ran for 388 yards against them and then the Trojans threw for 390 the following week.
11. Utah
12. Wisconsin
13. Nebraska
14. Iowa
15. Florida State
16. Oklahoma State
17. Missouri
18. Arizona
19. West Virginia
20. Arkansas
21. Texas
22. Mississippi State
23. Miami (FL)
24. Virginia Tech
25. USC
My Heisman Ballot (if the voting ended today)
1. Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn
2. LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
3. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State
BCS Predictions
ACC: Virginia Tech over Florida State
Big 12: Oklahoma over Nebraska
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State
Pac 10: Stanford
SEC: Auburn over South Carolina
BCS Championship: Oklahoma over Michigan State
Sugar: Auburn over TCU
Orange: Virginia Tech over Alabama
Fiesta: Boise State over Nebraska
Rose: Stanford over Ohio State
1. Auburn
Why They Should Be #1: It's almost a toss-up between the top three teams in the country. Bottom line is, Auburn has the best resumé in the country right now. Two terrific comeback wins over South Carolina and Clemson, an impressive shootout win over Arkansas, and the Mississippi State win on the road suddenly looks a lot more impressive. Cameron Newton has officially supplanted Denard Robinson as the most exciting player to watch in college football as well as the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: The defense has struggled immensely in pass defense and is ranked 63rd in the country in scoring defense which is an outright abomination at Auburn, especially considering the talent they have on defense this (and every) year.
2. Boise State
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: Say what you want about the schedule but the Broncos have been a model of consistency. Many national champions in college football history have faced comparably soft schedules and not dominated in the way Boise State has. To go along with the very respectable wins over Virginia Tech and Oregon State, the Broncos have won their other four games (Wyoming, New Mexico State, Toledo, and San Jose State) by a combined score of 215-20, which is roughly an average score of 53-5. The Broncos are ranked 3rd in the nation in both scoring offense and scoring defense and are ranked 14th in the country in both passing offense and rushing offense.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: It's getting really old to keep talking about the schedule but there really isn't much else you can say about this team. Their opponents' combined records are 16-24 and only Virginia Tech, Oregon State, and Toledo average over 13 points per game.
3. Oregon
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: Oregon still possesses one of the five most impressive wins of the season--arguably the most impressive--and is, of course, leading the nation in scoring offense. They're also 16th in the nation in scoring defense.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: The defense's nice average has a lot to do with some easy early games. In the last three games combined, the defense has yielded 84 points and 1451 total yards (including 973 through the air). The Ducks face one of the three worst passing offenses in college football next week when UCLA comes to Autzen Stadium Thursday night. However, they will have to face Matt Barkley and Jake Locker in their next two games as well as Nick Foles on Thanksgiving weekend. They'll have a long week to prepare for Barkley but they have plenty of work to do in that long week.
4. Oklahoma
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: The Florida State win looks better every week as the Noles continue to win. The Texas win looks a lot better now also. Landry Jones has quietly completed 67.4% of his passes for 1791 yards and 14 TDs with only 3 INTs.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: It's still hard to justify beating Utah State, Air Force, and Cincinnati by a combined 12 points but this team appears to have put that behind them. They've only played one road game so far and now begin a stretch where 4 of their last 6 games will be on the road, including big time matchups with Missouri and Oklahoma State.
5. Michigan State
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: This is the most balanced team in the country with the second best resumé in the country with wins over Wisconsin (who just knocked off former #1 Ohio State), Michigan (on the road), and Notre Dame. The only real test left for the Spartans should be the road trip to Iowa City and possibly a season-ending trip to Happy Valley, although the Nittany Lions could struggle just to become bowl eligible this year.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: It shouldn't. This team is just about the least sexy top 10 team but with their consistency, their balance, and their phenomenal coaching, I really believe this team should be talking national title.
6. Alabama
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: This is still probably the most talented team in the country. The defense is 5th in the nation in points allowed and the offense is one of the most balanced in the country. They also have two of the three best running backs in the nation in their backfield.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: The secondary's youth was exposed by both Ryan Mallet and Stephen Garcia. Alabama has yet to prove they can dominate an opponent on the road, especially in the first half. Championship teams go on the road against quality opponents and step on their throats from the opening gun. This team does the exact opposite, coming out flat on the road, letting teams get big leads and get their crowd into the game and having to dig themselves out of a big hole to get the win. They pulled it off against Arkansas but they fell short in Columbia.
7. TCU
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: I don't care who they're playing, winning games by an average score of 40-9 is damn impressive. Even more impressive is winning their last three games by a combined score of 103-3. The Horned Frogs lead the nation in scoring defense and that's an impressive feat for any team that's playing FBS competition. Don't forget this team obliterated a highly underrated Baylor team and beat a very good Oregon State team
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: 21-27 opponents' record. Tennessee Tech, by the way, is 3-4 and they play in the FCS, so that stat is actually sort of deceiving.
8. Ohio State
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: It shouldn't. Terrell Pryor's arm has been overrated all season as has their run defense (who hadn't faced a team in the top 25 in rushing offense all season: Marshall is 110th, Miami (FL) is 49th, Ohio is 45th, Eastern Michigan is 73rd, Illinois is 29th, Indiana is 104th) and both those things led to the loss in Madison Saturday. Certainly this is still an elite defensive team, ranked 7th in the nation in passing defense and 6th in total defense but the Buckeyes learned the hard way last year that--even in the Big Ten--you can't win championships with just defense.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: I haven't been convinced Ohio State was a top five team since I watched them play against Miami. The Buckeyes settled for five field goals in that game, three of them on drives that started inside the Miami 30 yard line.
9. LSU
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: I'm tempted to say it shouldn't but the two quarterback thing seems to be working--or at least it worked against the Gators. If Jarrett Lee throws the ball well and Jordan Jefferson is running the option, this team can probably beat anyone in the SEC. That's a big "if" though.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: I don't know if it's more impressive or depressing to be 7-0 and ranked 70th in the nation in scoring. It won't last though. LSU will have a hard time beating Auburn, Alabama, or Arkansas even if they do score 26 points (their average)--which they won't.
10. Stanford
Why the Ranking Should Be Higher: The Oregon loss is forgiveable--Tennessee couldn't stop the Ducks offense even if they used 13 guys on every play. They bounced back and beat a very good USC team in the final seconds. This is still one of the best, most balanced offenses in the country. People forget about their impressive blowout wins over Notre Dame and UCLA on the road now that Oregon is #1 in the country.
Why the Ranking Should Be Lower: The defense is 58th in the country in points allowed and have allowed 87 points and 1124 yards in their last two games. The dysfunction hasn't been limited to one aspect of the game either--the Ducks ran for 388 yards against them and then the Trojans threw for 390 the following week.
11. Utah
12. Wisconsin
13. Nebraska
14. Iowa
15. Florida State
16. Oklahoma State
17. Missouri
18. Arizona
19. West Virginia
20. Arkansas
21. Texas
22. Mississippi State
23. Miami (FL)
24. Virginia Tech
25. USC
My Heisman Ballot (if the voting ended today)
1. Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn
2. LaMichael James, RB, Oregon
3. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State
BCS Predictions
ACC: Virginia Tech over Florida State
Big 12: Oklahoma over Nebraska
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State
Pac 10: Stanford
SEC: Auburn over South Carolina
BCS Championship: Oklahoma over Michigan State
Sugar: Auburn over TCU
Orange: Virginia Tech over Alabama
Fiesta: Boise State over Nebraska
Rose: Stanford over Ohio State
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